The place Does Medvedev Play Most Of His Factors? The Reply May Shock You

What’s the most ample rally size in tennis?

For instance, do gamers play extra four-shot rallies, eight-shot rallies, or 13-shot rallies of their matches? The mathematical time period is the mode, and it sheds gentle on probably the most misunderstood ingredient of our sport.

Living proof: Daniil Medvedev on the 2021 Australian Open.

An Infosys ATP Past The Numbers evaluation of Medvedev’s 2021 Australian Open marketing campaign, throughout which he reached the ultimate, exhibits precisely the place the Russian performed the overwhelming majority of his factors. The attention take a look at finds Medvedev deep within the courtroom to return serve and hitting backhands cross courtroom advert nauseam to put on down opponents. It seems like he’s half man, half machine as he patrols the baseline together with his ungainly and unbreakable groundstrokes. Visually, you could possibly simply kind an opinion that Medvedev is a glorified grinder and performs extra six, seven or eight-shot rallies than anything. The attention take a look at is mistaken. Lifeless mistaken.

Medvedev performs extra one-shot rallies than some other, and it’s not even shut.

Rally size in tennis relies on the ball hitting the courtroom, not the strings. A serve lands in and the return is missed lengthy. That’s a rally size of 1 (one ball within the courtroom) though the ball was struck twice.

Medvedev performed 28.5 per cent (349/1226) of complete factors as a one-shot rally in Melbourne in 2021 by seven matches. That features all of the factors the place he served the ball in and it was both an ace or a return error, and likewise for his opponent. The subsequent highest complete was a three-shot rally, at 14.4 per cent (176). What’s eye-opening is {that a} one-shot rally happens twice as a lot as a three-shot rally (28.5% to 14.4%). The curve is steep in the beginning of the purpose.

A 3-shot rally happens greater than a two-shot rally because of the halo impact of the serve. It’s vital to notice that odd-numbered rallies can solely be received by the server and even-numbered rallies can solely be received by the returner. The graph beneath exhibits how our sport is extremely front-end loaded relating to rally size.

Medvedev performed significantly extra one-shot rallies in Melbourne final 12 months than some other. He additionally thrives on them. Medvedev received 62.8 per cent (219/349) of factors the place just one ball landed within the courtroom. He additionally received 56.3 per cent (72/128) of two-shot rallies as properly. He misplaced the three-shot rally size (43.2%) however dominated the four-shot rally size (66.7%).

The longest rally Medvedev performed on the 2021 Australian Open was 43 pictures towards Andrey Rublev within the quarter-finals. Rublev received it when Medvedev missed a forehand with each gamers standing behind the courtroom. Medvedev performed 26 factors the place the rally went 20 pictures or longer final 12 months. He solely received 11 of them (42%). On the opposite finish of the spectrum, he performed 743 factors when the rally was one, two, three or 4 pictures. He received 57 per cent (427) of this enormous slice of the aggressive pie.

Lengthy rallies are sometimes extra spectacular and stick in our thoughts, though there are only a few of them. Brief rallies are usually directed to our short-term reminiscence, and are in some way rapidly forgotten. It takes a stats sheet to uncover how our sport is actually organised.

2021 Australian Open: Daniil Medvedev Rally Size Performed

Rally Size Complete Factors % Of Complete Factors
0 (double fault) 40 3.3%
1 349 28.5%
2 128 10.4%
3 176 14.4%
4 90 7.3%
5 91 7.4%
6 73 6.0%
7 55 4.5%
8 41 3.3%
9 31 2.5%
10 29 2.4%
11 18 1.5%
12 16 1.3%
13 12 1.0%
14 13 1.1%
15 10 0.8%
16 6 0.5%
17 9 0.7%
18 8 0.7%
19 5 0.4%
20 6 0.5%
21 4 0.3%
22 2 0.2%
23 3 0.2%
24 2 0.2%
25 4 0.3%
27 2 0.2%
28 2 0.2%
43 1 0.1%

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