BaseballToday

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 11/29/21

2:00
Ben Clemens: Hey all people, welcome to the chat.
2:01
Ben Clemens: Looks as if we’re having a difficulty getting it to indicate on the primary FanGraphs web page, so for now it is a super-exclusive chat for individuals with beautiful tastes
2:01
Ben Clemens: And I imply, additionally individuals who like my writing. Not essentially mutually unique!
2:01
Ben Clemens: I received again from a pleasant trip to Italy Saturday night time, and picture my shock, each free agent is signing, like early Christmas
2:01
Ben Clemens: Let’s speak about it! And Italy too, in fact
2:02
BettsBellingerCaruso: Scherzer gone, Seager strongly linked w/ the Rangers and no information for Kershaw.

Dropping Scherzer is meh as he was right here for two months however the latter two as a Dodger fan… it will harm

The Bauer contract is accountable partly for this proper?

2:02
Ben Clemens: Undoubtedly appears that approach, although I believe the staff remains to be extremely prone to signal Kershaw
2:02
Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t panic an excessive amount of but; I doubt retaining Scherzer was the important thing to the Dodgers’ offseason plans or something
2:02
Ben Clemens: I nonetheless assume they’re available in the market for a bat and two good starters
2:02
5 Run Homer: Everyone seems to be everywhere in the Blue Jays for subsequent 12 months, and rightly so, but it surely appears like they’re nonetheless fairly incomplete as of proper now. The lineup is totally begging for a Kris Bryant, and I nonetheless don’t belief the bullpen. Can they win the division as at the moment constructed?
2:02
bk: The Blue Jays make the playoffs in 2022, sure or no (assuming continued 5 staff playoff construction)?
2:03
Ben Clemens: Two twists on the identical query
2:03
Ben Clemens: Can they win the division? After all
2:03
Ben Clemens: I’m gonna predict them to make it, but it surely’s a close to factor. I’ve them because the third-best staff within the AL East, which doesn’t go away you a lot margin for error
2:05
Ben Clemens: I believe they may use one other pitcher and one other bat. I’m much less involved concerning the bullpen simply because groups can repair that extra in-season
2:05
Darth NateR: Given all the problems that give you the chats hitting the entrance web page, I’ve to say being subscribed through RSS implies that I by no means miss one in all these! Excessive suggest to the 4 different individuals studying this.
2:05
Ben Clemens: Hey, you imply the FIVE different individuals studying this 🙂
2:05
Darth NateR: Which of the contracts signed thus far most stunned you?
2:06
Ben Clemens: Dan was tactful in his writeup, however wow that’s some huge cash for Semien. I don’t essentially assume it’s an excessive amount of, but it surely’s a kind of signings you make to sign that you simply’re open for enterprise, and uh…. are the Rangers open for enterprise?
2:06
Ben Clemens: I believed my 4/120 hypothesis made extra sense, and actually assume that it’s a bizarre timeline match
2:06
Ben Clemens: The rationale you’re signing Semien is for the primary two years of his deal… however the Rangers aren’t good proper now!
2:07
Ross: Do you want Story or Bryant higher for the Mariners?
2:07
Ben Clemens: Bryant, as a result of like Jerry, I actually do imagine that JP Crawford is an efficient match at shortstop
2:07
Ben Clemens: Feels such as you’re losing a little bit of Story’s worth by signing him on a staff with a superb shortstop already. If he’s taking part in third, why not go for Bryant as an alternative? I belief Bryant’s bat fairly a bit extra
2:08
Nate: Do you assume the White Sox can really get a center infielder for Craig Kimbrel? If that’s the case, who?
2:08
Ben Clemens: Boy, Nick Madrigal would look good proper about now, huh?
2:08
Ben Clemens: I don’t know!
2:08
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume they”ll handle it ultimately. Kimbrel has surplus worth, however not THAT a lot
2:08
Steve: What would you do subsequent for those who have been Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler? Are also the mets the WS favourite? NL favoroite? NL East Favourite?
2:09
Ben Clemens: I…. don’t assume the Mets are any greater than co-favorites to win the Eeast
2:09
Ben Clemens: I’ve them about even with the Braves
2:10
Anguished in Arvada: I double checked, and Jon Grey is the primary participant to ever not get traded on the deadline from a dropping staff, *not* get a QO, and nonetheless find yourself getting a $50m contract. Precisely how badly did the Rockies misplay their hand right here?
2:10
Ben Clemens: Yeah, so badly!
2:10
Ben Clemens: The entire thing simply continues to be a Rockies catastrophe
2:10
Ben Clemens: It’s exacerbated by their communication about it
2:11
Ben Clemens: They actually simply don’t have any consistency in what they’re saying or doing from second to second
2:12
Ben Clemens: They weren’t buying and selling Grey b/c they needed to increase him, then they gave him a large enough extension provide that he turned down that it was clear htey ought to QO him, then they didn’t QO him, then they didn’t preserve him…
2:12
Ben Clemens: Similar to, absolute catastrophe
2:12
Darth NateR: Do you assume with contracts like Semien’s it will be much less bizarre in the event that they entrance loaded the deal? Identical years, identical complete cash, however a lot of the cash coming on the entrance?
2:12
Ben Clemens: Probably not…. that issues barely from an NPV standpoint, and it may positively matter from an inside staff accounting standpoint, I simply don’t assume it matches the aggressive window of the staff
2:13
5 Run Homer: What do you assume Texas will get out of Grey? 4 years and over $50 mil is loads, looks like they’ve excessive hopes
2:13
Ben Clemens: I’d not have gone that top, however I believe that groups as an entire are fairly excessive on Grey’s probabilities of enhancing when free of Colorado
2:15
Ben Clemens: If I have been a staff, I’d favor to signal cheaper offers than 4/56 for guys I’m hoping to make higher through some as-yet not enacted change
2:15
Ben Clemens: Like, he’s a superbly good pitcher, and I don’t assume this deal goes to come back again and hang-out the Rangers or something.
2:16
Ben Clemens: However I’ve him and Steven Matz in an analogous tier, and I’d positively take Matz and save $12 million if I needed to decide
2:16
Ben Clemens: It’s a small criticism, I simply assume that there have been higher locations to buy for those who needed to be within the ‘pitchers we predict we are able to enhance’ tier
2:16
BigBagBerk: Who do you assume is the beginning SS for the Astros subsequent 12 months?
2:17
Hungry (Multi-colored) Eyes: Hello Ben! Do you assume the Mets make a commerce together with a few of Dom Smith, JD Davis, McNeil this offseason? Appears to be a little bit of a bottleneck now with Canha and Escobar. Thanks.
2:17
Ben Clemens: Yeah, I believe that one in all Dom or J.D. is probably going on the best way out for a return that may make Mets followers unhappy
2:18
Ben Clemens: I simply don’t assume you’ll get a lot for a 1B with a profession 104 wRC+ or a positionless bat who solely had 211 PA final 12 months
2:18
Thomas: what do you concentrate on a Taylor Rogers for Dominic Smith commerce
2:18
Ben Clemens: I believe this might make realllly little sense for the Twins
2:19
Ben Clemens: The place would they put Smith? Absolutely not left subject, and Sano looks like a much better selection at first
2:20
Ben Clemens: Smith remains to be younger and controllable, however I simply don’t thikn that ‘younger and controllable’ goes to enchantment to groups that a lot when it’s a primary baseman coming off of a nasty 12 months
2:20
AndrewUK: What’s the Blue Jays’ subsequent transfer? Absolutely they will’t match Ray into their finances in addition to Gausman long run, however they want one other starter and a 3B ideally, don’t you assume?
2:20
Ben Clemens: I believe they’ll most likely signal one other starter, possible a back-of-the-rotation sort
2:21
Ben Clemens: I believe that’s completely cheap given how good the highest of their rotation is now
2:21
Ben Clemens: I’m a Gausman skeptic however nonetheless, it’s a really stable prime three
2:21
Ben Clemens: Third base, nook outfield; I’d be proud of both of these spots
2:22
Ben Clemens: I don’t thoughts Santiago Espinal as a lot as most individuals appear to, and I’m decrease on Grichuk as an on a regular basis starter
2:22
Ben Clemens: I believe that almost all third base upgrades don’t transfer the needle relative to Espinal. If we’re speaking Matt Chapman, certain, however in any other case I’d quite give attention to pitching and RF
2:23
CY: Is Seager all the way down to Rangers and Dodgers?
2:23
Ben Clemens: I truthfully don’t know
2:23
Ben Clemens: Should you’re not one of many scoops reporters, it’s all studying tea leaves which have gotten out, and it’s onerous to determine what groups wnat to get out, what brokers wish to get out, and what simply received out naturally
2:24
Ben Clemens: I do assume that the Rangers are possible pushing for Seager, and the Dodgers certainly are too
2:24
Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t rule out different groups that want a shortstop,t hough
2:25
CY: The Rangers: A) Have a long run plan and are implementing it; B) Are Drunk?
2:25
Ben Clemens: Porque no los dos?
2:25
Hungry (Multi-colored) Eyes: How embarrassing is it that Scherzer’s ’22 AAV is increased than all the ’22 payrolls for the Pirates and Orioles?
2:25
Ben Clemens: It’s not nice!
2:25
Ben Clemens: That stated, I anticipate these groups’ payrolls will each enhance
2:25
Kurupt FM: Which free agent are you comparatively increased on then the trade/fan consensus?
2:25
Ben Clemens: Eduardo Rodriguez
2:25
Ben Clemens: Wow, simply an enormous fan
2:25
Ben Clemens: Secondary: Mark Canha
2:26
Ben Clemens: I believe that guys like Canha have simply lengthy been undervalued in free company
2:26
Ben Clemens: Groups are beginning to catch on, however I nonetheless assume the Mets did properly there
2:26
Ben Clemens: And E Rod, I simply assume that I’d quite get a man like that out of Fenway and see what occurs than signal any of the opposite non-Scherzer pitching offers which have come by means of thus far this winter
2:27
John G: What are the Giants going to do?? If they will get Ray and Rondon I’d really feel nice about pitching. However are we caught in reclamation initiatives any further?
2:27
Ben Clemens: I believe that the Giants are most likely completed with marquee pitchers. No Ray, no Rodon, except they determine they aren’t fascinated about including a hitter
2:27
Ben Clemens: But when I have been them, I’d most likely put the cash into the offense and run the present employees again with one or two extra reclamation undertaking additions
2:28
Ben Clemens: You’ll be able to go flawed betting on the fellows who have been good this 12 months to be good for you subsequent 12 months, however I believe they picked properly among the many ones they have been bringing again
2:28
Ben Clemens: and I’m a HUGE Logan Webb fan
2:28
Bryan: Jays provide Reds Pearson Kirk and Groshans for Castillo. Who says no?
2:28
Ben Clemens: I believe the Jays would say no
2:28
Ben Clemens: However I’m not fully certain on this one
2:29
Ben Clemens: Castillo is superior
2:29
Ben Clemens: However solely two years? That’s an enormous prospect haul for under two years
2:30
Ben Clemens: Shave off one title and I believe it’s a detailed one
2:30
BettsBellingerCaruso: So uhh Muncy apparently tore his UCL?

Dodgers are “solely” going to win 90 video games subsequent 12 months huh

2:31
Ben Clemens: Tough break for a staff that may afford tough breaks because of their excessive expertise stage
2:31
Ben Clemens: However yeah, they may be in for a down 12 months relying on the remainder of what they do that offseason
2:31
Ben Clemens: In the event that they don’t convey again Seager, that positively shrinks their margin for error, and Muncy will check that margin early
2:31
Michael: Are you able to consider a sane purpose that the Yankees would go along with Simmons at brief when their offense felt anemic for many of ‘21?
2:32
Ben Clemens: I don’t run the Yankees, however for me, it will be a mistake
2:32
Ben Clemens: That’s simply such a wierd threat to take while you’ve spent a lot cash elsewhere
2:32
Ben Clemens: I simply assume that the Yankees arrange REALLY properly to signal a marquee shortstop
2:32
Ben Clemens: It will be a wierd place to low-cost out, in an amazing marketplace for precisely the factor their staff appears arrange for
2:33
Thomas: As a Jays fan, my perfect remainder of the offseaon (assuming they don’t signal one other huge FA, which might be the true perfect) is commerce for Matt Chapman, signal an Alex Cobb-type starer (veteran, one or two 12 months deal) after which like 2 or 3 upside-with-questions aid arms
2:33
Ben Clemens: I’m glad I’m not the one one pondering Chapman Jays, that makes a ton of sense to me
2:33
Ben Clemens: This appears like mainly my perfect remainder of offseason for Toronto as properly
2:34
Ben Clemens: If they will’t swing Chapman, perhaps they see if Michael Conforto desires a one-year deal there? I’d actually like yet one more bat a technique or one other
2:34
Cob: Do you see the Crimson Sox allotting a significant contract? They might use an amazing starter, and possibly one other bat as properly
2:34
Ben Clemens: Type of relies on your cutoff for ‘main’
2:34
Ben Clemens: They already kiiiiind of introduced again J.D. Martinez, for those who assume they’d written him off as prone to choose out after the 12 months
2:35
Ben Clemens: I believe they nonetheless want a pitcher and a second baseman
2:35
Ben Clemens: I’m beginning to assume they may find yourself with neither
2:36
Ben Clemens: I believed they have been an amazing location for Marcus Semien if he was doing the brief/high-AAV model contract, however I don’t assume they have been ever gonna give him 7/175
2:36
John G.: follow-up if the Giants are targeted on hitting do you imagine it will be castillanos and completed? Possibly a Gary Sanchez waiver declare?
2:36
Ben Clemens: I may see that, although I don’t learn about this 7-8 12 months deal he’s rumored to be in pursuit of
2:37
Ben Clemens: I’m fairly excessive on Kris Bryant as properly, although I don’t actually know what his market seems to be like. I’d additionally contemplate Chris Taylor, who actually appears like a Gabe Kapler model of participant
2:37
Nate: Come throughout any good olive oils throughout your journey to Italy? I do know you’ve plugged oro di oliva just a few instances in chat earlier than
2:38
Ben Clemens: We had a completely wonderful olive oil at a pleasant restaurant (Bistrot 64)
2:38
Ben Clemens: It was actually inexperienced
2:38
Ben Clemens: Very grassy, actually pretty
2:38
Ben Clemens: However I didn’t get the title
2:38
5 Run Homer: Castellanos is asking for HOW a few years??
2:38
Ben Clemens: Certainly, it’s many
2:39
Visitor: Approx worth of the choose out Scherzer received after 12 months 2?
2:39
Ben Clemens: My choice worth calculator isn’t going to assume it’s price very a lot
2:39
Ben Clemens: As a result of single-year choose outs are kinda capped
2:39
Ben Clemens: It actually likes those which might be, say, three years into an eight-year deal or no matter
2:40
Ben Clemens: I want I had a greater reply for you than that, however I don’t know, mayyyyybe $5 million {dollars} or one thing? It’s onerous to think about a ton of worth when he’s going to be getting $43 million in that final 12 months
2:40
Visitor: Are you extra stunned by the scale of the M. Semien deal or the A. Garcia deal?
2:40
Ben Clemens: Hmm… Semien by a hair
2:41
Ben Clemens: I had Avi actually excessive up on our checklist and but was approach low, in order that one positively counts
2:42
Ben Clemens: Hm okay I modified my thoughts, I believe Avi’s surprises me extra
2:42
Ben Clemens: Not as a result of I don’t assume he might be good worth at that worth, however as a result of I didn’t anticipate 4 years
2:43
Ben Clemens: I now really feel foolish for dropping him to 1 12 months in my predictions, although. I had him at 2/32 for nearly all the time and pulled again in the previous couple of hours earlier than publishing
2:43
Appa Yip Yip: Gausman and Ray are each two pitch pitchers with brief observe data who’ve and can signal lengthy contracts. Who do you like?
2:44
Ben Clemens: I like Ray a bit extra, as a result of I simply can’t wrap my head round how Gausman will preserve getting away with it
2:44
Ben Clemens: (throwing so many splitters with out a pitch that breaks gloveside)
2:44
Ben Clemens: However I used to be positively the low man on Gausman and it looks like groups are increased on him than I used to be by a superb deal
2:45
Ben Clemens: Simply, one thing about that contract units off my spider senses
2:45
Archuleta: Suppose Crimson Sox proprietor LeBron James makes Stroman a pitch to come back to Boston? They’re buds and each repped by the identical company (Klutch). Mets could also be out of the working now…
2:45
Ben Clemens: I don’t… LeBron doesn’t seem to be he’s an energetic proprietor of the Crimson Sox, haha
2:45
Ben Clemens: Like, I thikn he would inform Stroman to get probably the most cash he can
2:45
Ben Clemens: And play someplace he desires to play
2:46
Archuleta: The place do the Dodgers flip to with Scherzer gone?
2:46
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume the Scherzer again to LA factor was ever a remotely completed deal, simply appeared like he’d get to go wherever he needed earlier than the Mets threw on an additional 12 months
2:47
Ben Clemens: That stated, I believe they flip to Jansen, Seager, and Kershaw
2:47
Jaysosmash: Can the Cubs be aggressive in 2022 like possession said?  If that’s the case, what beginning pitcher FA will enable them to vary momentum?
2:47
Ben Clemens: I imply…. look, they COULD
2:47
Ben Clemens: In the event that they signed a ton of gamers
2:47
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume that it’s notably possible
2:48
Ben Clemens: However hey, signal Carlos Correa and Nick Castellanos, convey again Anthony Rizzo, add two pitchers, fairly quickly you’ve received a stew going
2:49
5 Run Homer: The Dodgers actually have to ensure they preserve Kershaw now, proper? What are the probabilities he heads some place else?
2:49
Ben Clemens: Once more, I don’t have something distinctive right here
2:50
Ben Clemens: I simply assume that what Andrew Friedman has stated thus far and what LA’s rotation seems to be like each foreshadow one other 12 months
2:50
Ben Clemens: On the very least
2:50
Carlos Rodon: Am I planning to attend out just a few months of lockout to hope my arm can cross a bodily or is the whole lack of reports concerning the place I’m going an indication that nobody desires me?
2:50
Ben Clemens: In all probability extra the primary than the second
2:51
Ben Clemens: Rodon is represented by Boras, and it wouldn’t shock me if he have been within the ‘second-tier-client-Boras-doesn’t-do-well-by’ class
2:51
Ben Clemens: Boras has clearly been fairly busy of late with different signing
2:51
Ben Clemens: and it’s not like he’s the one individual at his company, however his smaller shoppers have all the time appeared to attend to signal till the massive names are out of the wya
2:52
Uncle Charlie: If Eugenio Suarez’s September is a sign that his prolonged hitting woes could also be a factor of the previous, would a Reds-Jays swap of 3B Suarez for INF/OF Cavan Biggio appear believable?  Biggio seems to be to be in like an odd man out state of affairs in Toronto.  And Suarez by no means misplaced his energy, simply his eye which he appears to have righted.
2:52
Ben Clemens: Uh…. it doesn’t, to me
2:52
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume Suarez is an efficient guess to rebound. I believe that Steamer’s 98 wRC+ prediction seems to be fairly cheap
2:53
Ben Clemens: Now, he’s on a really stable contract, 3/33 with a 15 million greenback choice afterwards
2:54
Ben Clemens: However that’s not a steal for a man who seems to be like he may be form of completed
2:54
Ben Clemens: Like, a variety of guys look higher with a .432 BABIP, however his August was fairly putrid
2:55
Ben Clemens: His second half was encouraging…. and likewise, he nonetheless struck out 30% of the time and is 30
2:55
Ben Clemens: I believe Biggio’s star has fallen, however not fairly that a lot
2:55
Visitor: Michael Lorenzen is gonna present Ohtani how *actual* two-way gamers do it proper? Pitch *and* play the sector?
2:55
Ben Clemens: Haha I believe so
2:55
Ben Clemens: It’s a wierd match for the Angels to me, however I assume they’re going six-man rotation anyway
2:56
Ben Clemens: It’s beginning to really feel like one in all my OOTP groups
2:56
Ben Clemens: Three two-way gamers, jam them in throughout the depth chart after they’re not beginning
2:56
TomBruno23: Good to see a man who is vital within the labor battle, and going thus far again because the draft days went indy ball to drive the problem with AZ, single handedly advancing the common annual worth file by over 20% from Cole’s 36M
2:56
Ben Clemens: You completely like to see it
2:56
D Lew: If Castellanos comes off his 7 12 months dream. You assume the Phillies are a superb match?
2:56
Ben Clemens: Yeah, completely
2:57
Ben Clemens: Relies on what they’re seeking to spend on… it wouldn’t shock me to see them as a thriller suitor in a number of the shortstop markets
2:57
Ben Clemens: But when they’re not doing that, I don’t hate hiding him in left subject or DH (pending common DH and many others) and their outfield is NOT good proper now outdoors of Harper
2:57
The Opener: What are your ideas on the Kluber signing and what may you see the Rays doing extra (if something) to their rotation earlier than opening day?
2:58
Ben Clemens: I believed that Jake Mailhot’s writeup was wonderful
2:58
Ben Clemens: I believe they may signal yet one more very-low-dollar pitcher, however that they’re virtually completed
2:58
Visitor: How a lot threat is there on Scherzer really pitching properly for 3 extra years?
2:59
Ben Clemens: Oh, there’s threat for certain!
2:59
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume there’s a lot in 12 months one
3:00
Ben Clemens: However it positively will increase as time goes on
3:00
Ben Clemens: I don’t have a superb quantitative reply for you, I haven’t regarded into it that deeply, however I do assume that Scherzer is an efficient guess to be both harm or good even at age 40
3:00
Appa Yip Yip: Matt Chapman has been trending down offensively for 2 seasons now. The protection is superlative, however what makes you assume the bat will bounce again? A no hit all protection third baseman isn’t actually all that compelling.
3:01
Ben Clemens: I believe that he’ll be JUUUUST a bit higher offensively than he was this 12 months, say to the tune of a .325 OBP or extra slug or one thing like that
3:01
Ben Clemens: And for those who’re a 110 wRC+ (ish, random quantity) third baseman with gold glove protection, that’s fairly good
3:01
Ben Clemens: All Star caliber participant, which is about the place I’d peg him. Borderline All Star
3:01
Pitcher’s duel: Would you quite have Logan Webb or Sandy Alcantara?
3:02
Ben Clemens: Boy, I’m going to proceed being too low on Sandy without end aren’t I?
3:02
Ben Clemens: I’d take Webb
3:02
Kozmania: Is it doable to construction a contract that’s virtually fully entrance loaded? Let’s say a staff has a younger nucleus, and a comparatively low payroll. This could enable them to soak up the FA contract, and supply flexibility down the highway?
3:02
Ben Clemens: So, you *may*
3:02
Ben Clemens: There are just a few issues
3:02
Ben Clemens: One, house owners don’t wish to spend cash now that they may spend sooner or later
3:02
Ben Clemens: Time worth of cash, groups have debt so spending the cash later is normally higher, that form of factor
3:02
Ben Clemens: Two, for the needs of the CBT, the league calculates annually of the contract with the identical worth
3:02
Ben Clemens: So even for those who went, say, 30/30/10/10
3:03
Ben Clemens: Annually would depend $20 in opposition to the CBT threshold
3:03
Ben Clemens: So you possibly can’t really get away with one thing by doing it. Now, perhaps you might commerce the man sooner or later if issues don’t work out and he’s now on an affordable deal?
3:03
Ben Clemens: However you might additionally get that impact by retaining cash sooner or later
3:03
Gerald: What’s the Mets payroll proper now?
3:03
Ben Clemens: I believe I noticed 265, however perhaps it was 256?
3:03
Ben Clemens: One thing like that, the best within the sport by an enormous
3:04
Johnny5Alive: Can the mets do something about Cano’s cash.  Like if he “retires” or does a Bonilla-type buyout with cash deferred over lengthy instances, does the 20million depend in opposition to the cap nonetheless?
3:04
Ben Clemens: Okay if he really retires, they’re off the hook
3:04
Ben Clemens: In order that’s unlikely to occur
3:04
Ben Clemens: In the event that they do a buyout, I really don’t know the cap implications
3:04
Ben Clemens: Let’s say they comply with an ‘extension’ that’s 5 million a 12 months for 4 years, changing this 12 months’s deal
3:04
Ben Clemens: after which they minimize him
3:04
Ben Clemens: I don’t know if the league would allow them to unfold the cash out that approach
3:05
Alby: Should you ran the Phillies, would you quite spend on a SS or 3B? Looks as if they want each along with a CF.
3:05
Ben Clemens: Shortstop, simply because there’s the next probability that there’s somebody they assume is for them is in the marketplace
3:05
Ben Clemens: In the event that they’re tremendous into Kris Bryant or Matt Chapman then nevermind?
3:06
Ben Clemens: However usually talking I believe brief is a tougher spot to fill for them (I form of assume Bryson Stott will find yourself at third)
3:06
Ben Clemens: Btw, noticed Stott in Fall League and he regarded highly effective
3:06
Ben Clemens: His homer numbers haven’t jumped off the web page within the minors, however I form of assume he’ll hit for extra energy than he has proven thus far
3:06
Visitor: Semien contract = Werth contract in DC?
3:06
Ben Clemens: Yeah, I like this comparability
3:07
Ben Clemens: If that’s what the Rangers are doing, then high-quality
3:07
Ben Clemens: The Werth deal was not an amazing deal for Washington in {dollars} and cents, but it surely was an amazing deal from a standpoint of energizing the fanbase, letting gamers realize it was a superb free agent vacation spot, and nonetheless being a helpful member of the staff when the rivalry years got here
3:07
Ben Clemens: If Eric Hosmer weren’t so dangerous, he’d match this sort of contract too
3:08
Ben Clemens: It’s simply… he’s substitute stage, Werth had two 4+ WAR seasons in DC
3:08
Gerald: Ought to extra groups/gamers look to construction a deal just like the Buxton deal?
3:09
Ben Clemens: I don’t precisely know the way it works, Buxton is a REALLY distinctive participant by way of his match for this deal
3:09
Ben Clemens: The place he’s a hitter with pitcher-ish tendencies
3:10
Ben Clemens: By way of very unsure availability
3:10
Ben Clemens: However possible dominance when wholesome
3:10
Ben Clemens: It’s onerous to construction offers precisely like that for extra normally-shaped hitters, however I really like the best of bigger incentives for gamers who’re form of caught between two future consequence projections
3:10
Bob Melvin: What would you do with Hosmer for those who have been the Padres?
3:11
Ben Clemens: I believe I’d attempt to make him a platoon first baseman, and be keen to chop him if that didn’t work out or if he wasn’t into it? It’s loopy as a result of there’s nonetheless some huge cash coming his approach, however simply from the sheer quantity of smoke coming from the clubhouse there, it looks like they haven’t actually completed a superb job getting the staff to purchase in that the correct factor to do entails much less Hosmer taking part in time
3:12
Ben Clemens: That’s euphemistic. What I imply to say is that the staff appears to assume that both a)taking part in Hosmer offers some worth that public fashions don’t seize
3:12
Ben Clemens: b)benching Hosmer creates some unfavourable worth that public fashions don’t seize
3:12
Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical of each!
3:12
Ben Clemens: That stated, I’m a public fashions man
3:13
Ben Clemens: I’d axe him, say ‘look no onerous emotions you’ve received a pile of cash both approach’ and transfer on with life
3:13
Joey Caltrain: How do you are feeling about MLB’s proposal a short time again to base participant salaries on Fangraphs’ personal WAR mannequin? Does it change how you are feeling about working at this web site?
3:13
Ben Clemens: I believed it was a flawed mannequin, and am usually in opposition to the thought of figuring out salaries in an algorithmic approach like that when groups retain the choice to non-tender gamers. It makes for an uneven threat profile
3:14
Ben Clemens: The satan could be within the particulars, and given the best way previous arbitration methods have labored, I believe it’s unlikely to work out in gamers’ favor
3:14
Ben Clemens: That stated, doesn’t change how I really feel about working right here in any respect. If there was a good technique to do it, I’d usually be in favor. I’m simply skeptical of the idea
3:14
Appa Yip Yip: The sunk price fallacy is so actual you gotta preserve digging that gap you’ve dug thus far already
3:14
Appa Yip Yip: Think about stopping digging wtf what a waste
3:15
Ben Clemens: Think about stopping digging
3:15
Ben Clemens: Simply consider beating the Astros 4 instances of their home in 2019
3:15
Ben Clemens: And Juan Soto shuffling aggressively
3:15
Thomas: I actually appreciated your Buxton piece, and it does seem to be perhaps extra offers ought to be structured like this. However then I considered it some extra, and isn’t this kind of heavy-awards-based incentive system simply the arbitration system, however outsourcing the arbiter’s function to the BBWAA?
3:15
Ben Clemens: Sure and no, as a result of groups can minimize the man in the event that they get harm in arb
3:16
Ben Clemens: I like the ground in Buxton’s deal, and I like the truth that it’s performance-based if he goes nuts however is at an inexpensive stage for each side in different circumstances
3:16
Ben Clemens: The idea of getting cash in alternate for enjoying properly is nice… I simply assume that the present arbitration system doesn’t enact it very equitably for gamers
3:16
Ben Clemens: However yeah…. a system that had extra incentive bonuses would look extra like arb for certain
3:16
Visitor: Is it true that every one the FA’s are signing earlier than the lockout merely to allow them to afford tons of Christmas items for his or her households?
3:16
Ben Clemens: Completely true!
3:17
Ben Clemens: I noticed Alex Wooden at my native Costco going nuts within the items aisle
3:17
Ben Clemens: (I completely didn’t!)
3:18
5 Run Homer:

Supply: The Mariners are closing in on a take care of Robbie Ray.

29 Nov 2021

the Mariners!

3:18
Ben Clemens: Now that’s enjoyable
3:18
Ben Clemens: They nonetheless want a 3rd baseman, however yeah, I’m intoi this
3:19
Ben Clemens: Prime finish pitcher is ideal for them
3:19
Ben Clemens: I LOVE that I put ‘Robbie Ray, maybe?’ in my buying checklist for htem
3:19
Ben Clemens: Very results-oriented pondering, however yeah, that’s me!
3:19
Porkchop: Is there any probability of a minimal staff wage construction upcoming?
3:19
Ben Clemens: By no means say by no means, however truthfully no?
3:19
Appa Yip Yip: I’d think about a variety of dudes wish to have a pair months to love. Get a spot to dwell and a sofa to sit down on quite than scramble in February and march
3:19
Ben Clemens: I believe this has a TON to do with it
3:19
Ben Clemens: I’m planning on writing about this when issues settle down
3:19
Ben Clemens: like, how did I get this so flawed
3:20
Ben Clemens: And I believe the mix of a brilliant line deadline when free company so hardly ever has one
3:20
Ben Clemens: After which the uncertainty of after they’d have the ability to signal afterwards
3:20
Ben Clemens: May be very motivating
3:20
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume anybody desires to have the lockout finish on Jan 30 after which determine the place they’re taking part in after that
3:20
Ben Clemens: And groups form of appear to be in the identical place, which surprises me
3:21
Ben Clemens: Look, for those who’re Marcus Semien or Kevin Gausman, I don’t assume these provides have been going to magically go up for those who waited till after the lockout
3:21
Ben Clemens: Certainty for each side is sensible for those who don’t assume this CBA goes to be firmament-shattering
3:21
TomBruno23: 5/115 for Ray per Heyman
3:22
Ben Clemens: With an choose out after three years
3:22
Ben Clemens: THAT is the form of choose out I like
3:22
Ben Clemens: If Ray is for actual, he’s opting out after 12 months three and getting one other huge deal
3:22
Thomas: Guys… ought to we’ve got a lockout yearly? This has been a lot enjoyable
3:22
Ben Clemens: After this text, I’m off to write down 75 free agent signing reactions
3:22
Ben Clemens: However apart from that yeah it’s been a blast
3:22
Visitor: The Rangers are making a push for Seager.  In the event that they land him (after already signing Grey, Semien, and Calhoun), the place do they slot amongst the AL West groups in probabilities of profitable the division?
3:22
Ben Clemens: Um…. fourth?
3:23
Ben Clemens: There are only a lot of holes there
3:23
Ben Clemens: Their pitching employees is like…. ‘Grey and Dunning and pray for rainouts for 3 days working’
3:25
Ben Clemens: I’m not in opposition to them including right here however even Seager is goin to go away them projected for about the identical WAR as Oakland and a bit of behind Seattle, and that’s with Seattle not including anybody after Ray
3:25
Ben Clemens: Oakland is tearing down, so I’ll give Texas the sting, however that also leaves Houston and LAA
3:25
Ben Clemens: And would it not shock anybody if Oakland did a sideways teardown and stored being considerably good?
3:26
5 Run Homer: Ray signing the very same deal as Gausman however for $1 mil extra in AAV could be very humorous to me
3:26
Ben Clemens: Oh, Ray’s deal is approach higher
3:26
Ben Clemens: Decide outs are useful for 30-year-old pitchers
3:26
Ben Clemens: However the numbers being so related is certainly actually humorous
3:26
Robbie: If Angels miss out on stroman do you assume they pivot to a SS and dangle marsh/Adell for a starter?
3:26
Ben Clemens: Ugh, they may??
3:26
Ben Clemens: I don’t like that for them however there’s precisely one prime line starter left
3:26
Ben Clemens: Two for those who like ROdon
3:27
5 Run Homer: I believed I noticed that Gausman had an opt-out?
3:27
Ben Clemens: I haven’t seen that reported, however the deal doesn’t seem like official but so perhaps
3:28
will: Is Ray the Mariners huge add this offseason or do you assume they’ll nonetheless be in on Bryant?
3:28
Ben Clemens: I believe they are going to be in on Bryant
3:28
Ben Clemens: I don’t know in the event that they’ll win the bidding
3:28
Ben Clemens: However I believe there’s room so as to add one other hitter of some notice
3:28
Ben Clemens: That is enjoyable, we’re mainly dwell tweeting new signings
3:29
TomBruno23: If Rodon is a prime line starter then so is Kershaw.
3:29
Ben Clemens: I simply have mentally penciled him in for the Dodgers
3:29
Porkchop: Is my timeless love of baseball wholesome?
3:29
Ben Clemens: It relies on the way you categorical it
3:30
Ben Clemens: I believe mine is, for instance, as a result of it feeds my love of analyzing issues and fixing puzzles
3:30
Ben Clemens: I additionally simply LOVE the comfort of basebal
3:30
Ben Clemens: In case your love entails you scremaing on the prime of your lungs about your staff’s mismanagement after they lose, I think about it may be tough in your blood stress
3:31
Spleebs: Looks as if the Gausman/Ray contracts are in the identical ballpark (not together with the opt-out which is de facto useful to Ray, in fact). Should you have been the Jays and had a decide of both Gausman/Ray with the (preliminary) phrases out within the open, which might you are taking given their wants/staff configuration
3:31
Ben Clemens: I’d take Ray, however look, I’m simply gonna need to proceed mentioning that I’m low on Gausman
3:31
Ben Clemens: I don’ assume that’s essentially how a staff ought to act in the event that they disagree with me on that
3:32
Appa Yip Yip: Type of like how the Ray/Gausman stuff labored out for the Jays. They get a comparable pitcher, no choose out, and a draft decide from the QO. Getting two additional picks subsequent 12 months frees them as much as deal prospects to say … Oakland for a pitcher and a 3rd baseman? Manaea or Bassitt with that rotation could be superior.
3:32
Ben Clemens: The QO kicker is sweet
3:32
Ben Clemens: That’s a purpose to love the best way they did it for certain
3:33
Sonny: An enormous a part of me desires the Mets to run wild subsequent 12 months and drive the dialogue again to, “groups make truck a great deal of money and one of the best ways to get championship tier good is to write down checks for the ending touches.”
3:33
Ben Clemens: I believe it will be fascinating. I do marvel how they’re going to fill out their pitching depth, which stays a place of fear
3:33
gorga: What on this planet is LAA even doing at this level? I’m satisfied they’re really glad with Thor and Lorenzen as their huge pitching provides and we’re getting one other 12 months of no Trout/Ohtani within the playoffs. I’ve by no means gotten this mad a couple of staff I’m not even a fan of!
3:34
Ben Clemens: I’m with you
3:34
Ben Clemens: Alright, I’m going to name it a chat and return to writing about Gausman for tomorrow
3:35
Ben Clemens: Thanks a ton to everybody who frolicked with me right now, although I’m EXTREMELY upset that baseball was so busy we didn’t have time to speak about Italy and Christmas current recommendations
3:35
Ben Clemens: I’m relying on everybody right here to make up for it in subsequent week’s chat.
3:35
Ben Clemens: Have a beautiful week everybody, and should your life increase like Avisail Garcia’s free company market


 

Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He might be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.

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